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Weather forecasting using deep learning techniques

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Abstract:

Weather forecasting has gained attention many researchers from various research communities due to its effect to the global human life. The emerging deep learning techniques in the last decade coupled with the wide availability of massive weather observation data and the advent of information and computer technology have motivated many researches to explore hidden hierarchical pattern in the large volume of weather dataset for weather forecasting. This study investigates deep learning techniques for weather forecasting. In particular, this study will compare prediction performance of Recurrence Neural Network (RNN), Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (CRBM), and Convolutional Network (CN) models. Those models are tested using weather dataset provided by BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics) which are collected from a number of weather stations in Aceh area from 1973 to 2009 and El-Nino Southern Oscilation (ENSO) data set provided by International Institution such as National Weather Service Center for Environmental Prediction Climate (NOAA). Forecasting accuracy of each model is evaluated using Frobenius norm. The result of this study expected to contribute to weather forecasting for wide application domains including flight navigation to agriculture and tourism.
Date of Conference: 10-11 Oct. 2015
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 25 February 2016
ISBN Information:
INSPEC Accession Number: 15804407
Publisher: IEEE

Advances in Computational Intelligence

Volume 9094 of the series Lecture Notes in Computer Science pp 430-443

Date: 06 June 2015

Deep Neural Networks for Wind Energy Prediction

  • Abstract

In this work we will apply some of the Deep Learning models that are currently obtaining state of the art results in several machine learning problems to the prediction of wind energy production. In particular, we will consider both deep, fully connected multilayer perceptrons with appropriate weight initialization, and also convolutional neural networks that can take advantage of the spatial and feature structure of the numerical weather prediction patterns. We will also explore the effects of regularization techniques such as dropout or weight decay and consider how to select the final predictive deep models after analyzing their training evolution.

Early Prediction of Extreme Rainfall Events: A Deep Learning Approach

Chapter · January 2016with7 Reads
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-41561-1_12
In book: Advances in Data Mining. Applications and Theoretical Aspects, pp.154-167
Abstract
Prediction of heavy rainfall is an extremely important problem in the field of meteorology as it has a great impact on the life and economy of people. Every year many people in different parts of the world suffer from the severe consequences of heavy rainfall like flood, spread of diseases, etc. We have proposed a model based on deep neural network to predict extreme rainfall from the previous climatic parameters. Our model comprising of a stacked auto-encoder has been tested for Mumbai and Kolkata, India, and found to be capable of predicting heavy rainfall events over both these regions. The model is able to predict extreme rainfall events 6 to 48 h before their occurrence. However it also predicts several false positives. We compare our results with other methods and find our method doing much better than the other methods used in literature. Predicting heavy rainfall 1 to 2 days earlier is a difficult task and such an early prediction can help in avoiding a lot of damages. This is where we find that our model can give a promising solution. Compared to the conventional methods used, our method reduces the number of false alarms; on further analysis of our results we find that in many cases false alarm has been raised when there has been rainfall in the surrounding regions. Thus our model generates warning for heavy rain in surrounding regions as well.


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